In his book, The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki turned conventional wisdom upside down when he showed that the average opinion of a crowd is frequently more accurate than the opinions of most of its individual members. In this article, in addition to pointing out the strengths and weaknesses in that book, Scott Armstrong considers whether or not traditional face-to-face meetings are an effective way to elicit forecasts from forecast crowds (taking the form of teams). He argues that the evidence clearly indicates that face-to-face meetings only hinder good forecasting practice. Armstrong goes on to provide some guidelines for problem-solving meetings, explains why traditional face-to-face meetings persist, and recommends three main types of alternative: markets (prediction, information, or betting Markets), nominal groups, and virtual teams. [ManyWorlds Annotation]

The former owner and president of a middle market M&A firm explains the 10 principles by which CEOs can defend themselves against overpaying their investment bankers.

How do M&A dealmakers cajole or coerce tough-minded, market-hardened CEOs to shell out top dollar, sometimes paying more for the business than it was "really worth"? What are the techniques? the tricks? Here's what M&A bankers do to you.

The right strategy and preparation are important elements in successful negotiation, but unless we use the right verbal and nonverbal communication we may never get what we want. Knowing the rules that can set the tone or "code" of a negotiation, and how we can successfully switch that code, is vitally important. Without that knowledge, this author points out, we may never get what we want.

Ken Hendricks buys companies more often than most people buy toothpaste. He claims his ability to size up the numbers is innate. More ordinary, five-sensed entrepreneurs may need a little help dissecting the financials. But they can still learn from Hendricks's five rules for a successful acquisition.

After months of drafting vision statements and rearranging organizational boxes, many companies have bogged down in the muddy terrain that separates theory from implementation, change on paper from change in reality. What went wrong? In their eagerness to unlock the creativity of the worker, some companies neglected a most valuable and necessary player in any change process - the middle manager.

Editor's Note: written in early 1991 but still applicable...

Robert Flanagan's look at the globalization wave of a century ago provides clues to the economics behind the current immigration debates.

There's nothing new about requests for proposals (RFPs). Companies have been using them for years to source products and services. But sourcing information products is another matter. While RFPs are customary in government organizations and academia, in other sectors, information products are more often purchased through a process of discussion and negotiation.

Today, however, more companies are becoming smarter about consolidating their spending on information products. As a result, more companies in all sectors are adopting a formal RFP process.

In this article, the authors outline an end-to-end RFP process for use in purchasing information products.

Lessons learned from these execs will sharpen your decision-making skills.

An awareness of the brain's flaws can help strategists steer around them. All strategists should understand the insights of behavioral economics just as much as they understand those of other fields of the "dismal science." Such an understanding won't put an end to bad strategy; greed, arrogance, and sloppy analysis will continue to provide plenty of textbook cases of it. Understanding some of the flaws built into our thinking processes, however, may help reduce the chances of good executives backing bad strategies.

Is the link between pay and productivity broken?

One million ideas a year. A culture of innovation. An intrinsic belief that good enough never is. Matthew May's manifesto shows you how Toyota's principles and practices will help you engage your creative spirit and bring elegant solutions to your work and life.

To create an organization that makes high quality decisions, one first needs to understand the larger dynamics that govern decision making and decision quality. They are:
- A decision is only as good as the weakest link
- How one frames decisions matters
- One can't judge a decision by the outcome
- Decisions are linked
- One can't know everything beforehand
- People have different risk profiles
- Organizational decision making is a balancing act
- 'Two-choice dilemmas' make leaders
- Organizational decision quality must be built a step at a time
- It's not a decision until one commits.

This paper explains each of these themes in the context of one of the great case studies in organizational decision quality of the last hundred years: the journey of Ernest Shackleton and his crew to the Antarctic aboard The Endurance.

Got guts-and 15 other must-haves-to start up your own shop?

Doing well and doing good is a pretty popular notion these days, especially among the world's largest corporations. That's a good thing. After all, who else has the financial resources and the influence to tackle pressing problems like the AIDS epidemic in Africa, cancer and global warming? Forbes offers a special report on the businesses trying to transform themselves into corporate citizens.

Over the past three decades, global trade has more than tripled the variety of international goods available to U.S. consumers. New research measures how consumers have benefited from this growth in variety.

For several years, human resources executives have chanted the mantra that HR is strategic. But what does this really mean? How do you know it, and, even more importantly, how do you measure it? The answers to these questions have been difficult to attain and are mostly subjective and qualitative. However, Deloitte has parlayed its Enterprise Value Map into its new Human Capital Management Value Map, which can clearly articulate the strategic value that HR brings to an organization. Companies that struggle with this subject can use the Human Capital Management Value Map to discover where and how they deliver value through people and HR.

Complexograms are thumbnail sales portraits of your customers. These portraits reflect the ideal status of each customer segment as they near the close of the buying decision process. A Complexogram has four quadrants representing the four dimensions of sales complexity (need, risk, knowledge, consensus).

With literally billions of dollars spent on training, why is it not more effective in changing organizations' practices? Why are training departments becoming today's "usual suspects?"

There's hardly a company today that isn't grappling with the difficulty of change. The problem isn't so much figuring out what to change - everyone knows that business has to become faster and better - it's how to get from here to there. Unfortunately, the approach to managing change that seems most reasonable and least arduous also turns out to be wrong. The problem is the seduction of reductionist thinking.

Some of the "diseases" that CEOs catch may seem minor; these can be the virulent ones that morph stealthily into major corporate illnesses. Following are some CEO diseases and prescriptions for treating them.

Professional skills can help take you up the corporate ladder, but your ability to build good relationships and create a positive impression on senior management is just as critical.

A legendary restaurateur taught me to use constant, gentle pressure to manage my growing company.

The market data is unequivocal - innovation, and only innovation, drives value creation on a sustained basis. This report goes further and defines the levels of innovation that actually drive value in today's economy. It is less often at the product level, and more often at the process and/or business model levels. The report also addresses the contrasting governance models for enterprise innovation processes, example cases, and future trends.

An effective advisory board, properly composed and structured, can provide non-binding but informed guidance and serve as a tremendous ally in the quest for superior corporate governance. This author, a lawyer with significant experience on boards of directors, offers a helpful blueprint for establishing an effective advisory board.